{
 "name": "Lived, not learned: children ever had, by sex and age, from lived lives against a model reading text",
 "registered": "2026-10-05",
 "claim": "A population lived month by month from each year's official fertility and mortality knows how many children people have had better than a frontier model answering from what it has read.",
 "truth": "General Social Survey 2024: `childs` (children ever born alive) among respondents born in the United States (`born` = 1), weighted by wtssps, in six cells: women and men aged 25-34, 35-44, 45-59",
 "engine": "experiment/kin/kin.ts at this commit with weights.json: the United States lived from January 1950 on UN WPP 2024 fertility by single age and complete life tables; parity weights fitted only to the Census CPS distribution of women 40-44 (2000, 2010, 2016, 2022); a man's children are those born to his partner, or attributed to a man 0-6 years older; 200,000 lives in 1950, read in mid-2024. No survey answers used.",
 "text model": "gemini-3.8-flash, 3 asks of the prompt in ask_kin.py with the year set to 2024, averaged; thinking low",
 "development": "on the 2022 survey (US-born): engine mean error 0.12 children, text model 0.27; siblings 0.42 against 0.47",
 "primary": "mean absolute error over the six cells: engine lower than the text model",
 "secondary": "siblings (`sibs`), engine counting the mother's other children, against the text model; reported either way",
 "publish": "results-kin.json whatever the outcome"
}