{
  "name": "back-cast, life expectancy intervals with shocks as events: does a world that carries wars, collapses and epidemics as events with their own chances give honest intervals?",
  "registered": "2026-10-04",
  "honesty": "Designed after results-backcast-e0.json, whose 80% intervals covered 74% and 69% in 2019. The settings were chosen on an earlier origin only (fit to 1984, scored 2003, develop-shocks.ts; nothing after 2003 read): there the intervals of backcast-e0.json's kind covered 51% and 53% and these 64% and 63%, interval score 23.0 -> 21.3 women, 19.5 -> 18.5 men. That origin's misses were the HIV/AIDS collapse of southern Africa, larger than any fall before 1984; the 1999 history contains its onset. Frozen before the 2019 values are read.",
  "data": "WPP 2024 life expectancy at birth by sex, the 155 countries of 1M+ people in 2000 (wpp.ts), years up to 1999 for fitting, 2019 for scoring",
  "centre": "the frozen crisis-robust forecast of backcast-e0-robust.json (e0.ts, robust: true), unchanged; its 2019 error is not re-scored here",
  "arms": {
    "blocks": "the centre plus 5-year runs of every year's pooled-gain residuals at the current level, as backcast-e0.json drew its intervals",
    "shocks": "the centre plus shocks (shocks.ts): a shock year has a residual more than 2.5 median absolute deviations below the median; episodes are the 10 residual years from each onset (kept as far as they went when cut by 1999); the yearly chance of an onset is learned separately for countries calm for 10 years and for those with an onset in the last 10; between shocks, 10-year runs of residuals from calm years at the current level"
  },
  "paths": "1,000 per country and sex, seed 20261004; the interval is the 10th to 90th percentile of the 2019 values",
  "outcomes": {
    "primary": "for both sexes, the shocks arm's 80% intervals cover between 75% and 85% of countries in 2019, AND its mean interval score (width plus 10 times any miss) is lower than the blocks arm's, paired by country, one-sided sign test p < 0.05",
    "also": "coverage and interval score of both arms in 2009; misses below and above; coverage by level of life expectancy in 1999",
    "decision": "the claim 'shocks as events give honest intervals' is supported only if the primary holds for both sexes; reported whatever happens"
  }
}