{
 "name": "Life expectancy twenty years ahead, against 2024 national figures (interim)",
 "registered": "2026-10-10",
 "why": "Every year in WPP 2024 has been read and the 2026 revision is not out. Eurostat (demo_mlexpec, updated 2026-09-25) and the OECD health statistics publish 2024 life expectancy compiled from national vital registration, which no run has read. This scores the forecast frozen here on those countries, before the full test on WPP 2026 (protocol-wpp2026.json).",
 "honesty": "Before this commit only 2004 values were fetched from either source (eurostat-e0-2004.json, oecd-e0-2004.json, a single year each). No 2024 value from any source has been read for these countries, and WPP 2024 values after 2004 were not used by the forecast.",
 "method": "freeze-e0.ts at this commit, origin 2004: women by the crisis-robust pooled gain (e0.ts), men as women minus the gap model (gap.ts, hinge 75), fitted on WPP 2024 medium up to 2004 for all 155 countries. Chosen on development only (develop-ensemble.ts, develop-e0-window.ts, develop-europe.ts): a gain curve learned on recent decades only or a different weight on the own trend did not help; on the European countries at six earlier origins the gap model was best for men (mean 1.44 years) and women were 0.80-1.24.",
 "prediction": "the country's 2004 value plus its forecast gain (forecast 2024 minus WPP 2004), both values from the same source, so a difference in definition between the UN and the national figure does not count as error. The raw forecast on the WPP scale is also reported.",
 "sources": {
  "eurostat": "demo_mlexpec, unit YR, age Y_LT1, sex F and M",
  "oecd": "OECD.ELS.HD DSD_HEALTH_STAT@DF_LE, LFEXP, age Y0, sex F and M; OECD members outside Eurostat only (partner economies, whose figures are partly modelled, are left out); a value flagged E (estimated) is not used"
 },
 "countries": {
  "eurostat": {
   "AT": "Austria",
   "BE": "Belgium",
   "BG": "Bulgaria",
   "CH": "Switzerland",
   "CZ": "Czechia",
   "DE": "Germany",
   "DK": "Denmark",
   "EE": "Estonia",
   "EL": "Greece",
   "ES": "Spain",
   "FI": "Finland",
   "FR": "France",
   "HR": "Croatia",
   "HU": "Hungary",
   "IE": "Ireland",
   "IT": "Italy",
   "LT": "Lithuania",
   "LV": "Latvia",
   "MK": "North Macedonia",
   "NL": "Netherlands",
   "NO": "Norway",
   "PL": "Poland",
   "PT": "Portugal",
   "RO": "Romania",
   "RS": "Serbia",
   "SE": "Sweden",
   "SI": "Slovenia",
   "SK": "Slovakia",
   "UK": "United Kingdom"
  },
  "oecd": {
   "AUS": "Australia",
   "CAN": "Canada",
   "CHL": "Chile",
   "COL": "Colombia",
   "CRI": "Costa Rica",
   "JPN": "Japan",
   "KOR": "Republic of Korea",
   "MEX": "Mexico",
   "NZL": "New Zealand",
   "USA": "United States of America",
   "TUR": "Türkiye"
  }
 },
 "inclusion": "a country is scored for a sex when its source has both the 2004 and the 2024 value at scoring time (presence is checked, not values). Countries on crisis-2004-2024.json (crisis-list.py, the rule of protocol-wpp2026.json) are left out; none of the listed countries is on it.",
 "comparability": "Period life expectancy at birth by sex in both sources. Some national figures for 2024 are provisional and some countries publish life tables over three years; the jump-off from the same source's 2004 value removes level differences but not the half-period lag of a three-year table. Both are reported per country.",
 "primary": {
  "metric": "mean absolute error in years, each sex, all scored countries",
  "bar_years": 1.2,
  "stretch_years": 1.0,
  "met_if": "both sexes at or below 1.2 years; 1.0 is reported as the stretch goal"
 },
 "frozen_sha256": {
  "forecast-e0-2004.json": "fc0f7c78f76a571156c7bfce5a29d1302d9da50d1e7f86b2aa1c3121ad571cb4",
  "eurostat-e0-2004.json": "8d9c0efe13e0f65cdeb701b324303b1d1664ffd285b7aea0f116c2bc81c28911",
  "oecd-e0-2004.json": "664b759583a458e2ad135994cec63306a0d6daa36675ffaac20d37566a14f813",
  "crisis-2004-2024.json": "84ba527f22d71892b9044315aa7efd31cc9477d263c8107937634fe0f4606a5f",
  "freeze-e0.ts": "0174c842a394bf564772ad31f48a765d36dc7d27f6c377e06d455e2fc5d09511",
  "e0.ts": "2f06e160d253071e9b71b0a094f9218a58b274280ad39e1a752a2c62930aebba",
  "gap.ts": "577b981104a5071d7190e7bcf5855774ced524b087c4d9691c3ef5b4ea297f4d",
  "wpp.ts": "bc90301672c0decdcec01bb3aebffaa36431144653ffcb4cf05befaa7eb0805d",
  "score-interim-2024.py": "80551656f707008d7b48d2e6456e756f7f71fb886775b5814e6f9d1115ccfa25"
 },
 "scorer": "score-interim-2024.py, run once after this commit",
 "amendment": "2026-10-10, before any score: the registered scorer stopped with HTTP 403 on the OECD request, which refuses the default Python user agent. Nothing was printed or written. The only change is a User-Agent header on that request."
}