{
 "name": "Men's life expectancy twenty years ahead, against 2025 national figures (men only), with 80% intervals",
 "registered": "2026-10-10",
 "why": "Men were not registered with the women's revised method (best development error 1.36). The new method mixes best practice with women minus a gap that knows lung cancer mortality; its development error is 1.12 on Eurostat and OECD countries from 1994 and 1.08 on the 2024 figures already read. This tests it, and its intervals, on a year none of our runs has read for men.",
 "honesty": "Before this commit only each office's 2005 value for men was fetched (national-e0-men-2005.json). For 2025 only the presence of the year in each table's metadata was checked (Statistics Estonia RV045 and Latvia IRP010 on 2026-10-10; the other four as recorded in protocol-national-2025-women.json). No 2025 value for men from any source has been read. The 2025 values for women in Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands were read for the women's test; they were not used here.",
 "method": "e0men.ts with freeze-e0-men.ts at the freezing commit: the even mix of (1) best practice: the mean of the three highest male levels rising on a line fitted over 1985-2005, and a pooled function of each country's shortfall below it; (2) women's revised forecast (e0v2.ts) minus a gap whose twenty-year change is predicted from women's level, the gap and its recent change, the gap at 65, women's forecast gain and lung cancer death rates at ages 45-64 by sex (WHO Mortality Database, years up to 2005). Fitted on WPP 2024 medium up to 2005. 80% intervals: the forecast plus the 10th and 90th percentiles of the same method's errors at origins 1994-2003, in the cell of the country's third of men's level and third of recent volatility.",
 "prediction": "each office's 2005 value plus the forecast gain (forecast 2025 minus WPP 2005); the interval and the baseline's interval are moved by the same amount",
 "countries": [
  "Norway",
  "Sweden",
  "Finland",
  "Netherlands",
  "Estonia",
  "Latvia"
 ],
 "sources": "national_e0_men.py at this commit: Statistics Norway 07902, Statistics Sweden LivslangdEttariga, Statistics Finland 12am, Statistics Netherlands 37360ned, Statistics Estonia RV045, Official Statistics Portal of Latvia IRP010; men, age 0",
 "selection": "the four offices of the women's test, and every further office found by a search for life expectancy tables in the open PxWeb interfaces of Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia and Switzerland that publishes single-year figures for men for both 2005 and 2025. Slovenia publishes 2025 but only a two-year table around 2005 (2004-2005, 2005-2006), so it is left out; no Swiss table was resolved; Denmark publishes two-year tables only; Eurostat has no 2025 values yet.",
 "primary": {
  "metric": "mean absolute error in years over the six countries",
  "bar_years": 1.2,
  "stretch_years": 1.0
 },
 "intervals": {
  "metric": "number of countries inside the 80% interval, and the mean interval score at the 80% level (width plus 10 times any distance outside), against the blocks baseline of shocks.ts (5-year residual blocks, 1000 paths, seed 20261004) frozen in the same file",
  "inside_at_least": 4,
  "met_if": "at least 4 of the 6 inside and a lower mean interval score than the baseline's. Six countries cannot tell 80% coverage from 90%; the 155-country test of the same intervals is registered in protocol-wpp2026-men-v3.json"
 },
 "gap_bias": {
  "metric": "mean signed error over the six (forecast minus figure); the study 'men as women minus a gap' left men too low by about 0.9 years",
  "abs_mean_signed_at_most": 0.5
 },
 "development": {
  "eurostat_oecd_from_1994": 1.12,
  "outside_hiv_and_crisis_155": 1.79,
  "six_offices_in_wpp_1988_2003": 1.15,
  "against_2024_figures_already_read_37_countries": 1.08,
  "intervals_test_origins_1998_2003": "coverage 0.80 (all), 0.80 (outside HIV and crisis), 0.81 (Eurostat and OECD); interval score 11.33, 9.09, 6.76 against the baseline's 12.23, 9.85, 8.40",
  "intervals_against_2024_figures_already_read": "coverage 0.92, score 5.02; baseline 0.49 and 8.12"
 },
 "scorer": "score-national-2025-men.py, run once",
 "frozen_sha256": {
  "forecast-e0-men-v3-2005.json": "e23ebeeadada6db1df7454949216c69feb877e3bad8dd84a4376c1980738583d",
  "national-e0-men-2005.json": "b0143c25b019a708132ca2c4a04ca71827da40f34dc4b1c6b52c728128084665",
  "national_e0_men.py": "03e569183888e2c01ab5448987dfd7a1ac275011c24b5d2fc45c047035fd35d7",
  "e0men.ts": "52d84bd504e5c4c1a9ffe3fbc3d229a6235ca1d5f84f7e018e7277d6c223f728",
  "freeze-e0-men.ts": "6bb04de222c054c9b76c54a27b257a20222093ac2cf0863c83b72608a1c54643",
  "e0v2.ts": "31340e77ddf670b7bcb8e6ca1487f0188aa707b7a72e2107b8ee93af47ccbc38",
  "e0.ts": "2f06e160d253071e9b71b0a094f9218a58b274280ad39e1a752a2c62930aebba",
  "shocks.ts": "96e919ac21cd2cb149ce9a6fabe6594fa4e9c035c05dbf29f8adc26741e1e7ad",
  "who_lung.py": "6a7813ec47bc0ece44a17d66848be58d73e43e6b121395dc00b68ad9702b30d8",
  "who-lung-2005.json": "51dc604fe38dbca721b8e9c2426af08e3208a0cd6586153ee404709499ea973e",
  "who-mortality-sha256.txt": "f69784fcd149f7e29c34a268ae8276793c0b00cd52c1ed3eb167f8d8d84cc6fa",
  "score-national-2025-men.py": "048541684355becda491bb82aac9361c2d1b2f2dd1d42c508002ad2ca4009afb"
 }
}