{
 "name": "Women's life expectancy twenty years ahead, against 2025 national figures (women only)",
 "registered": "2026-10-10",
 "why": "The 2024 interim test missed (results-interim-2024.json) with forecasts too high in long-lived countries; the cause was the top of the gain curve. This tests the revised method on a year none of our runs has read.",
 "honesty": "Before this commit only each office's 2005 value was fetched (national-e0-women-2005.json). For 2025 only the presence of the year in each table's metadata was checked; no 2025 value from any source has been read.",
 "method": "e0v2.ts with freeze-e0-v2.ts at this commit (women only): gains measured over five years, the highest levels pooled until each band holds 200 points, above the top band a gain falling toward 0.13 years a year within five years of level (the asymptotic rate of the UN's model, Raftery et al. 2013), the crisis-robust own residual and deficit recovery of e0.ts. Fitted on WPP 2024 medium up to 2005. Chosen on development only (develop-e0-v2.ts, every origin 1979-2003): women in Eurostat and OECD countries from origins 1994 on 0.93 years (the method scored in results-interim-2024.json: 1.14). Men are not registered: their best development error was 1.36.",
 "prediction": "each office's 2005 value plus the forecast gain (forecast 2025 minus WPP 2005)",
 "countries": [
  "Norway",
  "Sweden",
  "Finland",
  "Netherlands"
 ],
 "sources": "national_e0.py at this commit: Statistics Norway 07902, Statistics Sweden LivslangdEttariga (observed expectation of life at age 0), Statistics Finland 12am, Statistics Netherlands 37360ned; women, age 0",
 "selection": "every national office found with a single-year 2025 figure for women in an open API at registration; Denmark publishes two-year tables only and is left out",
 "primary": {
  "metric": "mean absolute error in years over the four countries",
  "bar_years": 1.2,
  "stretch_years": 1.0
 },
 "frozen_sha256": {
  "forecast-e0-women-v2-2005.json": "10c7f02f89c7e20cbb1bc6df19b24dadcd8a7a460a59282032cee03c9e138778",
  "national-e0-women-2005.json": "1050970f19d2f7f26f4a5277e2bc2427e2239e4374b0feb915a3e858f7403b26",
  "national_e0.py": "427e973aecc26d685b05ec51b80431d13e42838edf3d571832671b2d260b71c3",
  "freeze-e0-v2.ts": "82030e49b52937069340eeb3ab5c10d262f1782e396a8951b2c898f4c682aa38",
  "e0v2.ts": "31340e77ddf670b7bcb8e6ca1487f0188aa707b7a72e2107b8ee93af47ccbc38",
  "e0.ts": "2f06e160d253071e9b71b0a094f9218a58b274280ad39e1a752a2c62930aebba",
  "wpp.ts": "bc90301672c0decdcec01bb3aebffaa36431144653ffcb4cf05befaa7eb0805d",
  "score-national-2025.py": "6035e2714d813d31f33fcb5d478654e906cb540786f760ea217b518fb539f92f"
 },
 "scorer": "score-national-2025.py, run once after this commit"
}