{
 "name": "Life expectancy ten years ahead in European regions, within one year, from countries' history only",
 "registered": "2026-10-06",
 "why": "The 2019 back-cast (backcast-e0.json) missed its 1.0-year bar and stays a miss. The UN's own estimates for the same past period move by 0.9 to 1.4 years between editions (un-revisions.txt), so a 1.0-year bar against single-year values of every country sits at the noise of the data. This test asks the bar of places with complete registration, at the level where measurement is good, using 3-year means as small-area life expectancy is published, on regions the models have never seen.",
 "data": {
  "fit": "UN WPP 2024 life expectancy at birth by sex, countries of 1M+ people (wpp.ts), years 1978-2008 only",
  "score": "Eurostat demo_r_mlifexp (downloaded 2026-10-05 to lw-eurostat, sha256 printed in the result), unit YR, age Y_LT1, NUTS 2 codes (4 characters, not ending in ZZ), by sex"
 },
 "origin_centre": 2008,
 "horizon": 10,
 "fit_years": 30,
 "level_at_origin": 75,
 "min_history_pairs": 5,
 "values": "3-year means: the origin is the mean of 2007-2009, the target the mean of 2017-2019; a region's history is its 3-year means 1993-2008",
 "regions": "every NUTS 2 region of that sex with a 3-year mean of at least 75 at the origin, at least 5 consecutive pairs of 3-year means in 1993-2008, and values for 2017, 2018 and 2019",
 "model": "regional.ts at this commit: the mean of the crisis-robust pooled gain (as e0.ts) and the gap below the record (as bestgap.ts), both fitted on the countries only, each region keeping its own recent departure from its 3-year means",
 "bar_years": 1.0,
 "primary": "mean absolute error of the regional forecasts against the 2017-2019 means at most 1.0 year for women AND for men",
 "secondary": "the regions' own straight-line trend as a baseline; median error; share within 1 year; mean signed error; every region's forecast and value",
 "development": "only on countries, already read (develop-regional.ts, develop-regional2.ts): 10 years ahead, countries at 75+ at five origins 1989-2009, with 0.5 years of noise added to every value: women 0.81, men 0.74 for this variant; without noise 0.70 and 0.57. Earlier single-year variants were 0.95 and 0.86 without noise, 1.26 and 1.19 with it.",
 "disclosure": "Before registration the file's header and one row (Albania, age 1, 2013-2024) were printed, and the number of NUTS 2 series with a value in each year was counted. `--check` mode of the scorer was run to count qualifying regions; it reads values up to the origin and only the presence of 2017-2019. No regional value after 2009 has been read.",
 "run": "node experiment/lives/score-regions.ts WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz demo_r_mlifexp.tsv.gz > experiment/lives/results-regions.json",
 "publish": "results-regions.json whatever the outcome"
}