{
 "name": "Life expectancy ten years ahead in European regions, 2004-2006 to 2014-2016, women tied to men",
 "registered": "2026-10-06",
 "why": "The 2007-2009 to 2017-2019 test (protocol-regions.json) met for men (0.57) and missed for women (1.10, over-forecast by 1.06) and stays a miss. Women's gains slowed while the gap to men kept closing. This test keeps the men's method, forecasts women as the mean of their own forecast and the men's forecast plus the sex gap carried forward, and scores both on a window whose targets have not been read.",
 "data": {
  "fit": "UN WPP 2024 life expectancy at birth by sex, countries of 1M+ people (wpp.ts), years 1975-2005 only",
  "score": "Eurostat demo_r_mlifexp, the same file as protocol-regions.json (sha256 in its result), unit YR, age Y_LT1, NUTS 2"
 },
 "origin_centre": 2005,
 "horizon": 10,
 "fit_years": 30,
 "level_at_origin": 75,
 "min_history_pairs": 5,
 "values": "3-year means: the origin is the mean of 2004-2006, the target the mean of 2014-2016; a region's history is its 3-year means 1990-2005",
 "regions": "every NUTS 2 region of that sex with a 3-year mean of at least 75 at the origin, at least 5 consecutive pairs of 3-year means in 1990-2005, and values for 2014, 2015 and 2016",
 "model": "men: regional.ts as in protocol-regions.json. Women: the mean of (a) the same forecast from their own series and (b) the region's men's forecast (same method, any level) plus the sex gap of the 3-year means at the origin, moved by its straight-line trend over the last 15 years with that trend halving every 10 years, floored at 0. If the men's series is missing, (a) alone. score-regions2.ts at this commit.",
 "bar_years": 1.0,
 "primary": "mean absolute error at most 1.0 year for women AND for men",
 "secondary": "each region's own trend as a baseline; median error; share within 1 year; mean signed error; for women, the own-series forecast alone",
 "development": "countries only (develop-sexgap.ts): women at 75+, 10 years ahead, 3-year means; origins 1994-2009: own 0.67, mean of own and gap 0.64; origin 2005: 0.67 and 0.62; origin 2009: 0.86 and 0.78 (signed +0.66 and +0.54). Origin 2013 (targets in 2021-2023) is 1.7 for every variant, so that window is not used.",
 "disclosure": "Regional values up to 2009 and for 2017-2019 have been read (protocol-regions.json and its run). Values for 2010-2016 and 2020-2024 have not. The scorer's --check mode is run before registration to count regions; it reads only values up to 2006 and the presence of 2014-2016.",
 "run": "node experiment/lives/score-regions2.ts WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz demo_r_mlifexp.tsv.gz > experiment/lives/results-regions2.json",
 "publish": "results-regions2.json whatever the outcome"
}