{
 "name": "Men's life expectancy twenty years ahead in 155 countries: intervals and the bias outside HIV, frozen before the UN 2026 revision",
 "registered": "2026-10-10",
 "why": "The same frozen forecasts as protocol-national-2025-men.json, on all 155 countries. The shocks study left men's 80% intervals at 65% because their centre was too low; the fresh-year interval study left them at 89% and too wide; the gap study left men about 0.9 years too low outside HIV.",
 "method": "forecast-e0-men-v3-2005.json (e0men.ts, freeze-e0-men.ts), as described in protocol-national-2025-men.json",
 "target": "LExMale for 2025 in WPP 2026 (medium variant), the 155 countries of forecast-e0-men-v3-2005.json",
 "crisis_rule": "crisis-2005-2025.json from crisis-list.py, as in protocol-wpp2026.json; generalised HIV epidemics: the notScored list of results-backcast-e0-bayes.json",
 "intervals": {
  "metric": "share of countries inside the 80% interval and mean interval score at the 80% level (width plus 10 times any distance outside), against the blocks baseline frozen in the same file",
  "met_if": "coverage between 0.75 and 0.88 over all 155 and over the countries on neither list, and a lower mean interval score than the baseline's in both"
 },
 "gap_bias": {
  "metric": "mean signed error (forecast minus WPP 2026) over the countries on neither list",
  "met_if": "absolute value at most 0.5 years"
 },
 "point_errors": "mean absolute error over all 155 and outside HIV and crisis is reported, with no bar: development puts it at 2.43 and 1.79 (bars of the other tests 1.8 and 1.2), so a bar would be a registered likely miss",
 "development": {
  "intervals_test_origins_1998_2003": "coverage 0.80 (all), 0.80 (outside HIV and crisis); interval score 11.33 and 9.09 against the baseline's 12.23 and 9.85",
  "mean_signed_outside_hiv_and_crisis_1988_2003": 0.04
 },
 "frozen_sha256": {
  "forecast-e0-men-v3-2005.json": "e23ebeeadada6db1df7454949216c69feb877e3bad8dd84a4376c1980738583d",
  "e0men.ts": "52d84bd504e5c4c1a9ffe3fbc3d229a6235ca1d5f84f7e018e7277d6c223f728",
  "freeze-e0-men.ts": "6bb04de222c054c9b76c54a27b257a20222093ac2cf0863c83b72608a1c54643",
  "crisis-2005-2025.json": "38ae4b51369f0e8cee178bd2e18d86ee35400d57860f1b3bdcf312b7fdd90bbc",
  "crisis-list.py": "6bc39c22584db1bf74fcdeef0a2563d90bb012039b76fa893fa8f5d9bd5ba471",
  "results-backcast-e0-bayes.json": "07865dd8e979679817a49387feb9e0f4897270cc016d8538d52d91df4524eea9"
 }
}