{
  "name": "voiced lives, fertility: do lives given a voice, with their own record as memory, choose as the population they came from?",
  "registered": "2026-10-04",
  "target": "docs/LIVES.md target 5 (the two levels tested against each other), first measurement",
  "world": {
    "hazards": "UN WPP 2024, United Kingdom, 2019 (uk2019.json): death by single age and sex (qx, as a monthly hazard), births by single age of the mother (ASFR, as a monthly hazard, the same for every parity). Partnership, separation and leaving home are NOT fitted: partner 0.012 a month for unpartnered adults 20-45 and 0.004 otherwise from 16, separation 0.0015 a month, leaving home 0.02 a month from 18. Those are placeholders and are said to be.",
    "lives": "20,000 lives, ages drawn uniformly 0-89 at month 0, 4 places; advanced 360 months (30 years) with the hazards held at 2019 values; the record read at the end",
    "seed": 20261004
  },
  "voices": {
    "who": "300 living women aged 18-45 at the end, drawn by the seed: 50 from each of the age groups 18-22, 23-27, 28-32, 33-37, 38-42, 43-45",
    "model": "qwen3.5-4b, served on Living Worlds' own inference [infrastructure redacted], thinking off, temperature 0.7, at most 16 tokens, one request at a time",
    "with_record": "system: You are a woman living in the United Kingdom. The facts of your life so far are below; answer as yourself. user: the facts (age; partnered or not, and for how many years; each child's age; whether you live with a parent), then: It is January 2019. How likely is it that you will give birth in the next 12 months? Reply with only a number between 0 and 1.",
    "age_only": "the same, with only the age as the facts: a baseline that tells whether the record moves the answers",
    "unparseable": "a reply with no number in 0..1 is counted as did-not-run, reported, and left out"
  },
  "outcomes": {
    "real": "the UK 2019 ASFR, summed over ages 18-45 (TFR 18-45), and its mean age at childbearing over 18-45",
    "voiced": "per age group, the mean answered probability; TFR 18-45 = the sum over single ages of the mean of the group the age falls in; the mean age at childbearing weighted the same way",
    "also": "the standard deviation of answers within each group (homogenisation: a population whose answers all match has no individuals); answers by partnered vs not and by number of children, against nothing (reported as is)",
    "decision": "the voiced lives are consistent with their population if, with the record, |TFR 18-45 voiced - real| <= 0.20 AND |mean age at childbearing voiced - real| <= 1.0 year. Both conditions, both prompts, are reported whatever happens."
  }
}