{
 "name": "An agent with a life record against the same agent with only a persona, on what a person later said",
 "registered": "2026-10-06",
 "claim": "Giving a model a person's life record (what happened to them: partnership, children, work, income, household, region) changes its predictions of that person's later answers for the better, compared with the same model given only who they were.",
 "data": "GSS 2016-2020 panel (release 1a): respondents first interviewed in 2016 or 2018 and re-interviewed in 2020 (panstat 1), split in half by numpy default_rng(20261006); the test half (912 people) has never been asked about or scored",
 "arms": {"persona": "age, sex, race, education, region, marital status, children, work, household size, income, party and views at the first interview", "record": "the persona plus every change by 2020 in partnership, children, work, household size, region and income; never any answer to the target questions"},
 "model": "gemini-3.8-flash, thinking low, 20 people per call, the prompt in ask_panel.py; probabilities for each answer option",
 "targets": "2020 answers to happy, satfin, finalter, health",
 "score": "multi-category Brier score per person and question (probabilities renormalised), paired by person; bootstrap 95% interval of the mean difference persona - record (2000 draws, seed 7), score_panel.py",
 "development": "dev half (911): all four questions persona 0.6041, record 0.6019, difference +0.0022 (95% interval -0.0036 to +0.0080); satfin +0.0048 and finalter +0.0055, happy -0.0014, health -0.0011. The primary is the financial pair, chosen from development.",
 "primary": "on the test half, satfin and finalter together: the record arm has the lower Brier score and the 95% interval of the difference lies above zero",
 "secondary": "all four questions together, and each question; reported whatever they show",
 "spend_cap_usd": 1.5,
 "publish": "results-record.json whatever the outcome; if the record adds nothing, the claim that a life record changes what an agent does is not supported for people"
}