{
 "name": "Subgroup splits against the survey's own sampling floor",
 "registered": "2026-10-05",
 "why": "The earlier bar (six-cell error at most 3.0 points) sits below the sampling noise of the 2024 survey cells: a model that knew the true population shares would miss it on 23 to 88 percent of draws. Those earlier results stay as published. This test sets the bar from each question's own sampling noise.",
 "data": "General Social Survey 2024 (release 3a), weights wtssps",
 "target_year": 2024,
 "questions": [
  "natcrime",
  "nateduc",
  "natarms",
  "natsoc",
  "natspac"
 ],
 "answer_scored": "share answering 1 (too little) among answers 1-3",
 "cells": "party (Democrat incl. leaners / independent / Republican incl. leaners) x age (18-44 / 45-89)",
 "model": "logistic regression on age, age squared, sex, race, degree, party, ideology, region and party x age, fitted on 2016-2022 with weights halving every 4 years; frozen as score_floor.py in this commit",
 "anchors": {
  "own_topline": "intercept shifted so the weighted mean matches the 2024 national share (claim: the split, given the national level)",
  "last_topline": "intercept shifted to the 2022 national share (no 2024 information; reported, not the primary)"
 },
 "floor": "per question, the 95th percentile of the six-cell error between the observed cell shares and 400 within-cell bootstrap resamples (seed 7)",
 "primary": {
  "metric": "own_topline cell error at or below the floor",
  "questions_needed": 4,
  "of": 5,
  "note": "a model that knew the true shares would pass at least 4 of 5 about 98 percent of the time"
 },
 "secondary": "last_topline pass count, reported whatever it is",
 "disclosure": "Before registration the 2024 cell sizes and sampling floors of these questions were computed (develop-floor.py); their 2024 cell shares were computed inside that script but never printed or inspected. The model was developed only on gunlaw, cappun, grass, natenvir, natheal and natrace, where it passed 12 of 12 own-topline checks and 7 of 12 last-topline checks across 2022 and 2024.",
 "publish": "results-floor.json whatever the outcome"
}