Research · Populations · Oct 11, 2026

Thirty-one African countries, split by place and age

Met (30 of 31)31 countries, Afrobarometer round 10

The test at a glance

What it tests: Accuracy against reality: answers split by city or countryside and three age groups, given each country's national share.
Data: Afrobarometer rounds 5-10; fitted on rounds 7-9; round 10 (2026), 31 countries, 1,556 country-question pairs.
Held out: Round 10 group shares. Each person's other round 10 answers and the national share are inputs.
Compared against: No national level; the national level in every group; facts only.
Bar: A country meets when 80% of its pairs fall inside the survey's sampling floor; at least 25 of 31 countries.
Result: 30 of 31; 1,387 of 1,556 pairs. The comparisons: 0, 6 and 9 countries.

Given each country's national answer and each person's answers to other questions in the round, Living Worlds split 1,556 questions it had never seen across city and countryside and three age groups, in 31 countries from Senegal to South Africa, Morocco to Madagascar. In 30 of the 31 countries, and in 89% of all country-question pairs, the split landed inside the survey's own sampling noise. Registered before any round 10 answer was read; scored once. Data: Afrobarometer round 10 (2026), cited with thanks.

Protocol, result and scorer

Protocol Scorer Result Result by country Comparison: facts only Comparison: no split Comparison: no national level

The same test in the Arab world, Latin America and Asia, and births across Africa and South Asia with the Demographic and Health Surveys.

Thirty-one African countries, split by place and age

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