A frontier model speaking for a population

Lives fitted to records came far closer to a real population than a frontier model speaking for it. Answering as each of 1,936 people, Gemini 3.8 Flash split gun-permit opinion by party and age 16.4 points from the 2024 General Social Survey, playing each group's stereotype, and was 17 to 20 points off on five more fresh questions. Lives fitted to records missed by 3.22 points with every age gap right, just over the bar of 3.0, and matched 2 of the 5 further questions (death penalty 2.2, environment 1.8). Registered before any answer was read; 2024 held out. That bar sat below the survey's own sampling noise; the next tests set each bar at that noise.