Living Worlds

Research · Populations · Oct 11, 2026

Lives fitted to records, on five fresh 2024 questions

Met (4 of 5)five 2024 questions, party by age

The test at a glance

What it tests
Accuracy against reality: how five survey answers split by party and age.
Data
General Social Survey 1972-2024 (Release 3a); five questions on abortion and civil liberties chosen in development on earlier waves.
Held out
The 2024 answers to the five scored questions. Each person's 2024 answers to other questions in the same family are inputs.
Compared against
The 2022 shares carried forward.
Bar
Error at most 3.0 points and every age gap inside its 95% interval, on at least 4 of 5 questions.
Result
4 of 5 (2.48, 1.50, 1.68 and 2.92 points); carry-forward missed all five, by 4.9 to 8.3.

Lives fitted to the General Social Survey's records answered four of five fresh 2024 questions within the 3.0-point bar across six party-and-age groups, with every age gap right: three on abortion (2.48, 1.50 and 1.68 points) and whether a racist may teach at a college (2.92). Carrying the last measured shares forward missed every question, by 4.9 to 8.3 points. Registered before any 2024 answer to these questions was read; scored once. The fifth, whether a racist may give a speech, came in at 4.86. Each life fills in a question from the same person's other answers in the survey.

Protocol, result and scorer

Protocol Development results Development summary Result

Next

Welfare spending in a second survey nobody here has read, and the voice combined with records.

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