Living Worlds

Research · Populations · Oct 11, 2026

Births, from a voice that knows more than age

Ranking met; level missed4,453 women, 2022-2023 held out

Improved A later registered study met the bar: Births with the level set once, on a survey nobody had opened.

The test at a glance

What it tests
Accuracy against reality: who has a baby in the next three years, and how many do.
Data
US National Survey of Family Growth (CDC): voice trained on 2017-2019; scored on 4,453 women in 2022-2023.
Held out
The 2022-2023 files, unopened before registration.
Compared against
Age alone; a regression on the same facts; both fitted on 2017-2019.
Bar
AUC above age alone (95% interval above zero) AND the carried share inside the observed share's 95% interval.
Result
AUC 0.728 against 0.620: met. Share 0.155 against 0.178 observed: missed.

A voice trained on women's own records predicted who would have a baby in the next three years far better than age alone (AUC 0.728 against 0.620) and better than a regression on the same facts (0.701), on a national survey nobody here had opened. Its predicted share came in at 0.169 against the observed 0.178, but the registered adjustment for the national birth rate pulled it to 0.155, below the observed range, because the voice had already adjusted for smaller families itself. Registered before the data was read; scored once.

Protocol, result and scorer

Next

The level set once, registered on another survey nobody here had opened (the result).

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