Living Worlds

Research · Populations · Oct 5, 2026

Subgroup splits, held to the survey's own noise

Met (5 of 5)five fresh questions, 2024 held out

The test at a glance

What it tests
Accuracy against reality: the split by party and age, given each question's 2024 national share.
Data
General Social Survey 2024 (Release 3a); a regression fitted on 2016-2022; spending on crime, education, defence, social security and space.
Held out
The 2024 party-by-age shares of the five questions.
Compared against
The same model levelled to the 2022 national share, using nothing from 2024.
Bar
Six-cell error at or below the survey's own sampling floor on at least 4 of 5 questions.
Result
5 of 5; 5 of 5 also when levelled to 2022.

Given each question's 2024 national share, lives fitted to records from 2016 to 2022 split five fresh 2024 questions on public spending (crime, education, defence, social security, space) by party and age, and all five landed inside the survey's own sampling noise, where four were needed. Levelled only to the 2022 national share, using nothing from 2024, all five passed too. Registered before any question was scored; each bar set at the error the true shares themselves would stay under 95 times in 100. The model was built on six earlier questions alone, where it passed 12 of 12.

Protocol, result and scorer

Populations

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