Living Worlds

Research · Lifetimes · Oct 5, 2026

Honest intervals twenty years ahead, a fresh year

Met for women, not for men155 countries, 2023 held out

The test at a glance

What it tests
Accuracy against reality: whether 80% intervals hold on a year no run had read.
Data
UN World Population Prospects 2024, 155 countries; fitted on 1950-2003.
Held out
2023.
Compared against
Each sex's own forecast plus blocks of past residuals.
Bar
For each sex: coverage 75% to 85% AND a lower interval score than the baseline, Wilcoxon p < 0.05.
Result
Women 81% and 8.87 against 12.01: met. Men 89% with a worse score: not met.

Women's shock-aware intervals held on a fresh year: 81% of countries inside the 80% intervals, with a lower interval score than the baseline (8.87 against 12.01, p below 0.00000001). Men's intervals were too cautious for a calmer period: 89% coverage and a worse score than the baseline. Registered before any 2023 value was read; fitted on 1950-2003, scored on 2023. Next, men's width follows each period's risk of shocks.

Protocol, result and scorer

Protocol Result

Lifetimes

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