Primary met; bias remains155 countries
Improved A later registered study met the bar: Men's life expectancy twenty years on, a year nobody had read.
The test at a glance
- What it tests
- Accuracy against reality: men's life expectancy forecast through their gap to women.
- Data
- UN World Population Prospects 2024, 155 countries; fitted up to 1999.
- Held out
- 2019.
- Compared against
- Men's own crisis-robust forecast.
- Bar
- Lower mean error AND more countries won than lost, sign test p < 0.05.
- Result
- 2.40 against 2.42 years, 92 countries to 63 (p 0.012): met; men still about 0.9 years low outside HIV countries.
Forecasting men through their gap to women lowered error from 2.42 to 2.40 years, better in 92 countries and worse in 63 (p 0.012). Outside HIV countries men still came out about 0.9 years low.
Protocol, result and scorer