Met199 regions (women), 153 (men)
The test at a glance
- What it tests
- Accuracy against reality: regional life expectancy, ten years ahead.
- Data
- Fitted on UN WPP 2024 countries, 1975-2005; scored on Eurostat NUTS 2 regions (199 for women, 153 for men).
- Held out
- 2014-2016 regional values, never read. The 2004-2006 starting values had been read in the first regions test.
- Compared against
- Each region's own straight-line trend.
- Bar
- Mean error at most 1.0 year for women AND for men.
- Result
- 0.64 for women and 0.33 for men, against 0.66 and 0.64 for the trend: met.
Forecasting ten years ahead for European regions, Living Worlds came within 0.64 years for women and 0.33 for men, against 0.66 and 0.64 for each region's own trend: 84% of regions within a year for women, 98% for men. Registered after the first regions test missed for women, from 2004-2006 to 2014-2016: the 2014-2016 values had never been read, the 2004-2006 starting values had. Women's forecasts ran 0.51 years high on average.
Protocol, result and scorer