Living Worlds

Research · Lifetimes · Oct 6, 2026

Life expectancy in European regions, ten years ahead

Met for men, not for women235 regions (women), 180 (men)

Improved A later registered study met the bar: European regions on a window nobody had read.

The test at a glance

What it tests
Accuracy against reality: regional life expectancy, ten years ahead.
Data
Fitted on UN WPP 2024 countries, 1978-2008; scored on Eurostat NUTS 2 regions (235 for women, 180 for men).
Held out
2017-2019 regional values, from a 2007-2009 start.
Compared against
Each region's own straight-line trend.
Bar
Mean error at most 1.0 year for women AND for men.
Result
Men 0.57 (trend 1.38); women 1.10: not met.

Fitted on countries only, the forecast came within 0.57 years for men across 180 European regions ten years on, against 1.38 for each region's own trend. Women came in at 1.10 years against the bar of 1.0, almost all over-forecast (+1.06), as gains stalled across Western Europe in the 2010s. Registered before any region was read; fitted on UN WPP 2024 (1978-2008), scored on Eurostat NUTS 2 regions from 2007-2009 to 2017-2019. Both sexes were needed, so the test stands as not met.

Protocol, result and scorer

Protocol Scorer Result

Next

Registered on a window nobody had read: met (the result).

Lifetimes

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