Living Worlds

Research · Lifetimes · Oct 10, 2026

Life expectancy twenty years on, against 2024 national figures

Not met37 countries, 2024 held out

Improved A later registered study met the bar: Men's life expectancy twenty years on, a year nobody had read.

The test at a glance

What it tests
Accuracy against reality: life expectancy at birth, twenty years ahead.
Data
Eurostat and OECD national figures for 37 countries; forecast frozen in 2004 on UN data.
Held out
2024 national values. Each forecast is the 2004 national value plus the forecast twenty-year gain.
Compared against
None registered: an absolute bar.
Bar
Mean error at most 1.2 years for both sexes (1.0 the stretch goal).
Result
1.75 years for women, 2.13 for men: not met.

Frozen in 2004 and scored on 2024 figures from Eurostat and the OECD for 37 countries, each forecast a twenty-year gain added to the country's own 2004 figure, the forecast came within 1.75 years for women and 2.13 for men, against a bar of 1.2. It expected the longest-lived countries to keep gaining as they had: Japan, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Australia came in 2.3 to 5 years below it, while the Baltic countries did better. Registered before any 2024 value was read. The protocol was amended once, before anything was read, when the OECD refused a request.

Protocol, result and scorer

Protocol Frozen forecast Eurostat 2004 OECD 2004 Crisis list Scorer Result UN 2026 protocol

Next

A revised forecast, registered on a year nobody had read: met for women (the result), then for men. Both are registered against the UN's 2026 revision.

Lifetimes

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