Met for women, not for men155 countries
Improved A later registered study met the bar: Men's life expectancy twenty years on, a year nobody had read.
The test at a glance
- What it tests
- Accuracy against reality: whether 80% intervals hold, with wars, collapses and epidemics as events.
- Data
- UN World Population Prospects 2024, 155 countries; fitted up to 1999.
- Held out
- 2019.
- Compared against
- Blocks of past residuals around the same frozen forecast.
- Bar
- For both sexes: coverage 75% to 85% AND a lower interval score than the blocks, sign test p < 0.05.
- Result
- Women 79%, better in 93 of 155 (p 0.008); men 65%: not met for men.
Treating wars, collapses and epidemics as events with their own chances gave women honest 80% intervals: 79% coverage, better in 93 of 155 countries (p 0.008). Men's intervals covered 65%, centred too low.
Protocol, result and scorer